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相信AI能改變世界的創投之神---Masayoshi Son 孫正義

Artificial Intelligence(AI)人工智慧正蓬勃發展,各行各業的趨勢都離不開AI議題,但我們對AI的觀感是什麼呢?成立願景基金Vision Fund的日本軟銀集團創辦人孫正義投注大量資金支持AI發展,全心相信AI能改變全人類的未來、治癒癌症等解決現階段無解的問題,甚至縮短人類的工時,建立更好的生活基礎,即便他的願景基金在2019狂虧七千億日圓,仍無法阻擋他持續投資的決心。

Before you read

Masayoshi Son

孫正義

1957年8月11日

 

WHO

日本軟銀集團董事長兼創辦人,曾被美國財經媒體CNBC點評為「比亞馬遜的貝佐斯、特斯拉的馬斯克更具影響力。」2000年時他以2000萬美元投資馬雲的阿里巴巴集團,讓軟銀賺回1,000%以上報酬,成為投資領域傳奇,讓他當了三天「世界新首富」,有人稱他「創投之神」,而他目前仍是日本首富。

 

WHAT

孫正義在 2017 年成立願景基金Vision Fund,是有史以來全球最大的科技基金,最初以募集1,000億美元為目標,投資有前瞻性的新創公司,幾乎全球所有共享交通領域的新創(Uber、滴滴、Grab)都是其投資項目,亦收購世界各地年輕企業。

 

HIGHLIGHT

日前軟銀宣布成立第二支科技基金「願景基金2」(Vision Fund 2),規模高達1,080億美元,專注投資AI項目,預計出資的投資者除蘋果、微軟和多家日本銀行外,鴻海集團也在投資人名單之列。然而,願景基金在2019因投資Uber與WeWork虧損甚巨,導致願景基金2首波資金並不理想,諸多報導稱孫正義恐走下神壇,且大量投資AI將加劇AI產業過熱問題,各界都在關注孫正義的下一步。


訪談節錄自美國有線電視台CNBC

Q: And that's been a focus of yours I know in terms of where you're investing. I think you've said AI will be the biggest revolution in human history. Why?

那(AI)是你的主要投資項目,你曾說過,AI會是人類歷史上最大的革命,為什麼?

A: Because, you know, under us there are many living beings. But mankind has been the best, most-- smart and powerful-- which affects everything on the Earth-- with the premise that mankind has the smartest intelligence. But finally mankind has invented by ourself something that could be smarter than ourself in many aspects. So, you know, mankind invented tools. The tools made cultivation for farming and so on. But there was the premise that mankind's brains are always smarter than the tools that we control. Finally the tool may be becoming smarter than ourselves. So that means whatever we have been using tool for industrial society-- paradigm-- a big paradigm shift is happening. And everything should be redefined. Every industry will be redefined.

因為,在我們之下還有很多生物,但是人類是最強大的,我們聰明且有力量,影響了地球上的一切,人類先天就擁有絕佳的智力。但人類已經在很多方面發明比我們自己還聰明的東西,人類發明工具,比方說耕種機具之類的,不過有個先決條件是,人腦總會比我們操控的機器聰明,也許之後機器會比我們聰明,這代表我們一直以來在工業社會運用的工具型態會轉變,一切會被重新定義,每個產業都將被重新定義。

Q: So if AI is going to become a million times more powerful than it is right now-- I can only -- well, it's hard to imagine. How do you see?

那麼,如果AI變得比現在強上百萬倍,這很難想像,你怎麼看?

A: Well, within 30 years-- definitely-- things will be flying. Things will be running much faster without accident. We will be living-- much longer, much healthier. So the disease that we could not solve in the past will be-- cured.

一切絕對會在30年內飛快轉變,我們會活得更久、更健康,現在無法治好的疾病都會得到解方。

Q: And that will be thanks to AI?

而這些要歸功於AI?

A: Yes. Of course, definitely. So the disease-- there are many diseases like cancer and so on-- which could not help millions of people's life. The cancer would no longer become-- the disease that we should be afraid of. Because of the artificial intelligence, it will solve--the issues that we could not solve.

是的,當然沒錯。現在像癌症等奪走上百萬人性命的疾病,將不再讓我們害怕,因為AI會解決現在我們無法解決的事。

Q: And do you believe that's within our lifetime?

你覺得這些事情會在我們有生之年發生嗎?

A: Yes. Definitely. I don't know who-- whose lifetime. But-- in the next 30 years, I definitely think that-- it's happening. The-- we have the mobility with-- automobiles and-- so on. But there were lots of accidents. Millions of people die because of accidents. That would no longer be the case. Autonomous driving and autonomous flying..., all those things. Today we are-- driving ourselves. That would no longer be the case. So that-- AI would make the transportation-- to cause zero accident in the end.

當然,我不知道是誰在世的時候,但30年內一定會發生,已經正在發生了。現在我們有車輛運輸一類的,但是有很多事故發生,數以百萬計的人因為這些意外死亡,以後再也不會有這樣的事情,自動駕駛、自動飛行等,現在我們要自己開車,但以後不需要了,AI會主導,打造出0事故的交通運輸。

Q: ...there's a debate about AI. I mean, Elon Musk for example-- is very concerned that it will be used not for good but for perhaps evil, or that we'll get to a point where the machines control us, our robot overlords. You don't think that?

我是說像馬斯克,他對AI就非常憂慮,認為AI會被利用在不好的事情上,或者AI發展至某個程度時,我們會被機器控制、機器人過多,您不會這樣想嗎?

A: I'm an optimist, okay. There will be always be an issue. There always have been an issue. But we-- mankind is smart enough. We always try to adapt to the new situation. You know, only 100 years ago, just 100 years ago, the occupation, the jobs, 90% of the workers' job was farming. And today in advanced countries like U.S., Japan right, it's only 5%. Only 5% of the people's job is-- farming today. 90% now became 5%. Now when it become 5%, what happened to the job? People still have many other exciting job, creative job.

我是樂觀主義者,這麼說吧,總是會有各式各樣的事件發生,但人類夠聰明,我們能適應各種情況,在100年前90%的工作都是耕作,而現在像美國、日本等先進國家,農業工作僅剩5%。從90%變成5%,而就業狀況怎麼了呢?大家還是有很多其他令人興奮的、有創意的工作。

Q: So this world that you've described and your ideas about how we're going to get there, what of your investments whether at Softbank or within the Vision Fund best encompasses sort of this view?

What-- of the many names-- companies that you own a piece of or all of do you feel sort of best reflects and benefits from the world that you seek?

你所描述的世界,以及發展的方式,你在軟銀或願景基金的投資如何體現?你希望達成的那個世界,是怎麼影響或讓你目前投資的公司得到好處?

A: All of-- the 70 companies that we have invested in in the last year and a half with the Vision Fund-- they are all AI-centric, okay. They're all using the power of AI-- for the evolution. And they're fantastic companies. Many-- companies-- are going to have IPO in the next-- two, three years. That's the only one thing I'm focused on now. So we are investing $100 billion just on one thing, AI.

在過去一年半我們以願景基金投資的70家公司全都是以AI為發展中心、利用AI的力量進化,都是很棒的公司,很多將要在接下來兩三年內首次公開募股(IPO)。我們只專注在AI上,投資了一千億美金進去。

Q: How does WeWork-- how does WeWork fit into that with the power of AI?

WeWork呢?怎麼跟AI結合?

A: My view, it's a working-- community, okay. WeWork-- with-- almost half a million-- members right now, they have the community graph. So if you are-- a start-up company for example and have-- the wish to provide a new product, you need the designing of the product. You need the packaging. And pack-- also packaging need the designing. And-- you need an accountant. When you start shipping product-- you need lawyer for patent application. So you need many things. That's outside of your own employees' expertise that you want to get. But throughout-- WeWork membership, they can help each other. They can come in the same office, share from New York, from Boston, and meet and help each other among WeWork members. And like Amazon, it gives the recommendation with the power of AI. So if the recommendation of the product can be done with the power of AI, the recommendation of meeting the other people within the-- WeWork membership can be done. So it will be much more productive, much more enjoyable.

就我來看,WeWork是一個工作的社群,上面有近50萬的會員,組成社群網。今天如果你是一家新創公司,想要提供新商品,你會需要商品設計、包裝以及包裝的設計,你也會需要會計師,當你要運送商品時,你會需要律師申請專利,開公司需要很多人才,可能都是在你的員工專業之外,但是透過WeWork,社群成員可以互相幫助,大家來到同一個辦公室,可能來自紐約、波士頓,因為WeWork得以碰面互相協助,而就像Amazon利用AI推薦商品,同樣的道理,WeWork也可以利用AI媒合人才,生產力提升,大家工作更順利。

Q: But right now, they're losing money.

但目前WeWork是在虧錢。

A: But-- it's an ongoing recurring revenue. It's like a subscription. You know the subscription of-- magazines or a newspaper and now Netflix. Netflix is still losing money, but the value of the company is tremendous compared to other media companies.

但是這是持續的經常性收入,就像雜誌跟報紙的訂閱,而現在我們訂Netflix。Netflix還在虧錢,但是比起其他媒體公司,Netflix的價值高出許多。

Q: Why are you so willing to take so much risk, and have been, even though you had what people would describe as a near-death experience, so to speak, 19 years ago?

為什麼你會這麼願意承擔風險?而且你19年前甚至經歷了大家會稱之為「瀕死」的經驗(指網路泡沫崩盤時)?

A: Because I'm a believer. I am definitely a believer of-- the technology. Some people don't like technology as an investment thesis. I love it, I believe in the technology.

因為我有我的信仰,我相信科技。有些人不喜歡投資科技,但我超愛,我相信科技。


編輯/馬婉娟

本文收錄於英語島English Island 2020年02月號

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